哈佛大学教授：18分钟让你明白美国动手真相新闻来源: 加州华人 于 2019-06-12 7:39:49
格雷厄姆·埃里森的著作《注定一战：美国和中国能逃避修昔底德陷阱吗？》（Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?）于2017年5月由霍顿米夫林出版公司出版后迅速成为畅销书。
So, let me thank you for the opportunity to talk about the biggest international story of your professional lifetime, which is also the most important international challenge the world will face for as far as the eye can see.
The story, of course, is the rise of China. Never before have so many people risen so far so fast, on so many different dimensions. The challenge is the impact of China's rise -- the discombobulation this will cause the Unites States and the international order, of which the US has been the principal architect and guardian. The past 100 years have been what historians now call an "American Century." Americans have become accustomed to their place at the top of every pecking order. So the very idea of another country that could be as big and strong as the US -- or bigger -- strikes many Americans as an assault on who they are.
这个话题，毋庸置疑，便是中国的崛起。在此之前从未有如此众多的人，在如此众多的方面，有着如此飞速地进步。随之而来的挑战在于中国崛起所带来的影响--对美国以及国际秩序，所产生的混乱，而美国一直是国际秩序的首要建造者和守卫者。历史学家们将过去的100年称为“美国的世纪”。美国人对自己在各方面所处的顶尖地位，早已习以为常。 因此，若是有另一个 如同美国一样，力量强大的大国--甚至更大的国家存在。这将对美国人的自我认知造成威胁。
For perspective on what we're now seeing in this rivalry, it's useful to locate it on the larger map of history. The past 500 years have seen 16 cases in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power. Twelve of those ended in war. So just in November, we'll all pause to mark the 100th anniversary of the final day of a war that became so encompassing, that it required historians to create an entirely new category: world war. So, on the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month in 1918, the guns of World War I fell silent, but 20 million individuals lay dead.
I know that this is a sophisticated audience, so you know about the rise of China. I'm going to focus, therefore, on the impact of China's rise, on the US, on the international order and on the prospects for war and peace. But having taught at Harvard over many years, I've learned that from time to time, it's useful to take a short pause, just to make sure we're all on the same page. The way I do this is, I call a time-out, I give students a pop quiz -- ungraded, of course. So, let's try this. Time-out, pop quiz.
Question: forty years ago, 1978, China sets out on its march to the market. At that point, what percentage of China's one billion citizens were struggling to survive on less than two dollars a day? Take a guess -- 25 percent? Fifty? Seventy-five? Ninety. What do you think? Ninety. Nine out of every 10 on less than two dollars a day. Twenty eighteen, 40 years later. What about the numbers? What's your bet? Take a look. Fewer than one in 100 today. And China's president has promised that within the next three years, those last tens of millions will have been raised up above that threshold. So it's a miracle, actually, in our lifetime. Hard to believe. But brute facts are even harder to ignore. A nation that didn't even appear on any of the international league tables 25 years ago has soared, to rival -- and in some areas, surpass -- the United States.
猜一下--25%？ 50%？ 75%？ 是90%。你们怎么看？ 90%。每十人中有九人，每天的花销不到2美刀。
你们猜是多少？ 了解一下，如今每一百人中不到一人。中国还承诺在未来三年里， 最后的那一千万人口，会摆脱那个临界值。因此这可以说是我们有生之年中的一个奇迹。难以置信。
Thus, the challenge that will shape our world: a seemingly unstoppable rising China accelerating towards an apparently immovable ruling US, on course for what could be the grandest collision in history. To help us get our minds around this challenge, I'm going to introduce you to a great thinker, I'm going to present a big idea, and I'm going to pose a most consequential question. The great thinker is Thucydides. Now, I know his name is a mouthful, and some people have trouble pronouncing it. So, let's do it, one, two, three, together: Thucydides. One more time: Thucydides.
因此，改变世界的挑战在于：貌似无法阻挡的崛起的中国，加速朝着明显不动的占据统治地位的美国走去。这可以说是历史上 最大的碰撞交锋。为了帮助大家理解这个挑战， 我要向大家介绍一位伟大的思想家。我要在演讲中展示一个宏大的想法，并由此提出 最重要的问题。这位思想家名为修昔底德。我知道他的名字很绕口，有些人不太清楚如何发音。所以我们练习一遍， 一，二，三，一起：修昔底德。再一次：修昔底德。
So who was Thucydides? He was the father and founder of history. He wrote the first-ever history book. It's titled "The History of the Peloponnesian War," about the war in Greece, 2500 years ago. So if nothing else today, you can tweet your friends, "I met a great thinker. And I can even pronounce his name: Thucydides." So, about this war that destroyed classical Greece, Thucydides wrote famously: "It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made the war inevitable." So the rise of one and the reaction of the other create a toxic cocktail of pride, arrogance, paranoia, that drug them both to war.
谁是修昔底德？ 他是历史学之父，历史学的创立者，他撰写了第一本历史书。这本书名为 《伯罗奔尼撒战争史》。它讲的是2500年前发生在希腊的战争，所以如果今天什么都没印象你可以给朋友发推特说：”我今天认识了一位伟大的思想家，我甚至可以念他的名字：修昔底德”。关于这场摧毁了古希腊的战争，修昔底德写下了一句著名评论：“正是雅典势力的崛起和斯巴达因此而逐渐产生的恐惧，使得这场战争不可避免”。所以一方势力的崛起，以及另一方所做的反应，制造了饱含骄傲，傲慢，偏执的有毒鸡尾酒，这毒药让两者都上了战场。
Which brings me to the big idea: Thucydides's Trap. "Thucydides's Trap" is a term I coined several years ago, to make vivid Thucydides's insight. Thucydides's Trap is the dangerous dynamic that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, like Athens -- or Germany 100 years ago, or China today -- and their impact on Sparta, or Great Britain 100 years ago, or the US today. As Henry Kissinger has said, once you get this idea, this concept of Thucydides's Trap in your head, it will provide a lens for helping you look through the news and noise of the day to understand what's actually going on.
而这将我引向一个宏大的想法：修昔底德的陷阱。“修昔底德的陷阱”是我几年前发明的词, 以便生动地阐述修昔底德的见解。“修昔底德的陷阱“指的是当新兴力量，威胁到掌权势力时产生的危险动态， 如雅典-- 如100年前的德国，又如如今的中国-- 和它们对斯巴达的影响，如100年前的大英帝国又如今对美国造成的影响。像亨利·基辛格所说，一旦你产生这个想法，脑海中有了“修昔底德的陷阱”，它将给你提供--透过现今的新闻与喧嚣，并理解事态的实际进展的棱镜。
So, to the most consequential question about our world today: Are we going to follow in the footsteps of history? Or can we, through a combination of imagination and common sense and courage find a way to manage this rivalry without a war nobody wants, and everybody knows would be catastrophic? Give me five minutes to unpack this, and later this afternoon, when the next news story pops up for you about China doing this, or the US reacting like that, you will be able to have a better understanding of what's going on and even to explain it to your friends.
So as we saw with this flipping the pyramid of poverty, China has actually soared. It's meteoric. Former Czech president, Vaclav Havel, I think, put it best. He said, "All this has happened so fast, we haven't yet had time to be astonished."
To remind myself how astonished I should be, I occasionally look out the window in my office in Cambridge at this bridge, which goes across the Charles River, between the Kennedy School and Harvard Business School. In 2012, the State of Massachusetts said they were going to renovate this bridge, and it would take two years. In 2014, they said it wasn't finished. In 2015, they said it would take one more year. In 2016, they said it's not finished, we're not going to tell you when it's going to be finished. Finally, last year, it was finished -- three times over budget.
为了提醒我自己应该有多惊讶，我坐在自己在剑桥的办公室， 偶尔会朝窗外望去这座横跨查尔斯河的桥，它处于哈佛的肯尼迪政府学院和商学院之间。2012年，马萨诸塞州宣布他们将翻新这座桥，预计将花费两年时间。 可到了2014年还没竣工。2015年时，他们说要再一年。到了2016年他们又说未能竣工，我不是打算告诉大家它什么时候能竣工。最终，这项工程在去年竣工--实际花费金额是预算的三倍。
Now, compare this to a similar bridge that I drove across last month in Beijing. It's called the Sanyuan Bridge. In 2015, the Chinese decided they wanted to renovate that bridge. It actually has twice as many lanes of traffic. How long did it take for them to complete the project? Twenty fifteen, what do you bet? Take a guess -- OK, three -- Take a look.
现在，把这架桥和我上月在北京曾驾驶穿过的一座桥做对比。这座桥叫三元桥。2015年时中国人决定翻新这座桥。这座桥的交通车道数是剑桥的两倍。中国人花了多久完成这项工程呢？ 2015年，你们猜是花了多久？ 猜一下--好，三（年）我们看看这段录像吧。
The answer is 43 hours.
Now, of course, that couldn't happen in New York.
Behind this speed in execution is a purpose-driven leader and a government that works. The most ambitious and most competent leader on the international stage today is Chinese President. And he's made no secret about what he wants. As he said when he became president six years ago, his goal is to make China great again --
a banner he raised long before Donald Trump picked up a version of this. To that end, Xi has announced specific targets for specific dates: 2025, 2035, 2049.
By 2025, China means to be the dominant power in the major market in 10 leading technologies, including driverless cars, robots, artificial intelligence, quantum computing. By 2035, China means to be the innovation leader across all the advanced technologies. And by 2049, which is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic, China means to be unambiguously number one, including, an army that he calls "Fight and Win." So these are audacious goals, but as you can see, China is already well on its way to these objectives. And we should remember how fast our world is changing. Thirty years ago, the World Wide Web had not yet even been invented. Who will feel the impact of this rise of China most directly? Obviously, the current number one. As China gets bigger and stronger and richer, technologically more advanced, it will inevitably bump up against American positions and prerogatives.
到2025年时，中国要成为10个先进科技领域，主要市场中的主导力量，这其中包括 无人驾驶汽车，机器人，人工智能和量子计算。到2035年时，中国要成为所有先进科技领域中最具创新力的领导者。并且到2049年，中华人民共和国，成立100周年之际，中国要成为无可争议的第一，其中包括，一支他称为“打得赢”的军队。这些都是大胆的目标，但是大家都知道，中国在朝着目标的路上，一路走得稳扎稳打。我们还需提醒自己这个世界的变化之快。 三十年前，万维网还没出现。有谁能直观地感受到中国崛起的影响力呢？ 答案显而易见的，便是当今的第一大国。随着中国变得愈发强大和富有，科技变得更加先进，中国将注定要对美国的地位和特权产生威胁。
Now, for red-blooded Americans -- and especially for red-necked Americans like me; I'm from North Carolina -- there's something wrong with this picture. The USA means number one, that's who we are. But again, to repeat: brute facts are hard to ignore. Four years ago, Senator John McCain asked me to testify about this to his Senate Armed Services Committee. And I made for them a chart that you can see, that said, compare the US and China to kids on opposite ends of a seesaw on a playground, each represented by the size of their economy. As late as 2004, China was just half our size. By 2014, its GDP was equal to ours. And on the current trajectory, by 2024, it will be half again larger. The consequences of this tectonic change will be felt everywhere.
For example, in the current trade conflict, China is already the number one trading partner of all the major Asian countries. Which brings us back to our Greek historian. Harvard's "Thucydides's Trap Case File" has reviewed the last 500 years of history and found 16 cases in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power. Twelve of these ended in war. And the tragedy of this is that in very few of these did either of the protagonists want a war; few of these wars were initiated by either the rising power or the ruling power.
So how does this work? What happens is, a third party's provocation forces one or the other to react, and that sets in motion a spiral, which drags the two somewhere they don't want to go. If that seems crazy, it is. But it's life. Remember World War I. The provocation in that case was the assassination of a second-level figure, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, which then led the Austro-Hungarian emperor to issue an ultimatum to Serbia, they dragged in the various allies, within two months, all of Europe was at war.
So imagine if Thucydides were watching planet Earth today. What would he say? Could he find a more appropriate leading man for the ruling power than Donald J Trump?
So finally, we conclude again with the most consequential question, the question that will have the gravest consequences for the rest of our lives: Are Americans and Chinese going to let the forces of history drive us to a war that would be catastrophic for both? Or can we summon the imagination and courage to find a way to survive together, to share the leadership in the 21st century, or, to create a new form of great power relations?
That's the issue I've been pursuing passionately for the last two years. I've had the opportunity to talk and, indeed, to listen to leaders of all the relevant governments -- Beijing, Washington, Seoul, Tokyo -- and to thought leaders across the spectrum of both the arts and business. I wish I had more to report. The good news is that leaders are increasingly aware of this Thucydidean dynamic and the dangers that it poses. The bad news is that nobody has a feasible plan for escaping history as usual.
So it's clear to me that we need some ideas outside the box of conventional statecraft -- indeed, from another page or another space -- which is what brings me to TED today and which brings me to a request. This audience includes many of the most creative minds on the planet, who get up in the morning and think not only about how to manage the world we have, but how to create worlds that should be. So I'm hopeful that as this sinks in and as you reflect on it, some of you are going to have some bold ideas, actually some wild ideas, that when we find, will make a difference in this space. And just to remind you if you do, this won't be the first time.
Let me remind you of what happened right after World War II. A remarkable group of Americans and Europeans and others, not just from government, but from the world of culture and business, engaged in a collective surge of imagination. And what they imagined and what they created was a new international order, the order that's allowed you and me to live our lives, all of our lives, without great power war and with more prosperity than was ever seen before on the planet. So, a remarkable story. Interestingly, every pillar of this project that produced these results, when first proposed, was rejected by the foreign policy establishment as naive or unrealistic.
我再来讲述一下第二次世界大战后发生的事吧。一个由美国人，欧洲人和其他地区的人 组成的杰出组织，其中不仅有拥有政府工作背景的成员，还有来自文化界和商界的成员。他们把自己投入进想象力集合工程。这些人所想象和创造的，是新的国际秩序，一个让你、我、所有人都拥有自己的生活，让大规模战争消失殆尽，并带来前所未有的繁荣的秩序。 这是一段很杰出的事迹。有趣的是，这个项目中的每一环，在最开始公布的时候，被对外政策体制以幼稚和不现实为由拒绝。
My favorite is the Marshall Plan. After World War II, Americans felt exhausted. They had demobilized 10 million troops, they were focused on an urgent domestic agenda. But as people began to appreciate how devastated Europe was and how aggressive Soviet communism was, Americans eventually decided to tax themselves a percent and a half of GDP every year for four years and send that money to Europe to help reconstruct these countries, including Germany and Italy, whose troops had just been killing Americans. Amazing. This also created the United Nations. Amazing. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights. The World Bank. NATO. All of these elements of an order for peace and prosperity. So, in a word, what we need to do is do it again. And I think now we need a surge of imagination, creativity, informed by history, for, as the philosopher Santayana reminded us, in the end, only those who refuse to study history are condemned to repeat it.
我最欣赏的是马歇尔计划。第二次世界大战结束后，美国已精疲力竭。它们遣散了一支千万级军队，并把精力放在紧急国内议程中。但当人们开始意识到欧洲是怎么满目疮痍 以及苏联共产主义如何强势时，美国人最后决定在四年内向人民征收占GDP 1.5%的税金，并把这些钱送至欧洲协助重建，包括德国和意大利，这些美国昔日的敌军。令人惊叹。 这件事也促使了联合国的建立。令人惊叹。世界人权宣言。世界银行。北大西洋公约组织。所有这些都是这个以和平繁荣为目的的秩序的产物。